Analysts at ANZ point out that Indonesia’s trade balance swung to a record deficit of USD2.50bn in April, exceeding even ANZ’s below-consensus expectation of an USD1.85bn shortfall.
Key Quotes
“The deterioration reflected both a sharp fall in exports and an increase in imports. Historical trends suggest imports will likely remain elevated during the Ramadan season in May and then fall back only in June.”
“Accordingly, the trade balance is likely to remain in deficit in May. As for Bank Indonesia’s policy decision, a rate cut tomorrow had looked unlikely amid the recent market volatility, and today’s trade data only strengthens that view.”
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