According to Poitr Matys, EM FX strategist at Rabobank, the prospect of the Fed lowering interest rates in the coming months is an encouraging signal for the CBRT.
Key quotes
“The markets could be getting ahead of themselves pricing in a new easing cycle at the time when a cut in July could be ‘one and done for now’.”
“We expect the CBRT to keep its main policy rate unchanged at 24% on June 12. It would be also prudent to restore a higher degree of hawkishness in the official statement to prevent the market from speculating about the possibility of a premature rate cut, which would be counterproductive.”
“Inflation continues to decelerate on the back of the strong disinflationary impact of weak consumption.”
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