Deutsche Bank analysts point out that yesterday saw the Labour Party table a cross-party motion to prevent a no deal Brexit in the UK.
Key Quotes
“If such a bill were to pass, the tensions within Parliament would likely escalate towards a general election. On that theme, the Conservative party leadership contest kicks off with its first ballot tomorrow, where a hard Brexit-supporting candidate is likely to emerge victorious at the end of the process.”
“The odds that a deal is successfully ratified by end-October are now 25%, while the odds of a no-deal Brexit are 25% as well.”
“The Brexit story and its consequences still have an enormous amount of runway to go but we are currently in the eye of the storm. This fresh parliamentary vote in a couple of weeks could shake things up again leaving a new PM little choice but to go to the country.”
“ComRes published the first opinion poll overnight that I have seen with all the different potential Conservative leaders vs all the other parties. On this poll Boris Johnson is only one of the candidates that give the Tory’s a majority (140 seats) at the next election alongside a substantial 14% lead. He is the only candidate that reduces the Brexit party’s support enough (below 20%) to do this.”
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