EUR/USD technical analysis: 200-day MA hurdle scaled for first since May 1, 2018

• EUR/USD confirmed bullish trend with a close above 200-day MA on Friday.  
• The daily chart shows a bullish higher low, higher high pattern.  
• Friday’s close also confirmed an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.  

The EUR/USD pair closed above the 200-day moving average (MA) on Friday – the first daily close above the long-term moving average in over 13 months – confirming a bullish breakout. After all, the 200-day MA is widely considered a barometer of the bull/bear market.  

Further, the pair closed well above the  June 7 high of 1.1348 on Friday, confirming a bullish higher low, higher high pattern and an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.  

As a result, the path of least resistance is now on  the higher side and the pair could challenge the March 20 high of 1.1448 this week. A break higher would expose 1.1514 (Jan. 31 high). It is worth noting that the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout has opened the doors to 1.16 (target as per the measured move method).  

A close below 1.1348 would neutralize the immediate bullish outlook. As of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1381, the highest level since March 22.

Daily chart

Trend: Bullish

Pivot points