In view of Jens Nærvig Pedersen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, USD weakness has grabbed hold in the majors while weak German Ifo business sentiment and hawkish comments from the Fed’s Kaplan did not stop EUR/USD from breaking the 1.14 level yesterday.
Key Quotes
“Today, the market will scrutinise Fed Chairman Powell’s speech. The market is assigning a two-thirds chance of a 25bp cut and a one-third chance of a 50bp cut when the Fed meets in July. That is a bit on the dovish side in our view, which opens up for a temporary setback in EUR/USD on the way towards our 3M forecast of 1.15.”
“Further, USD/CHF continues to decline, highlighting the relative starting point of the Fed vs the SNB in terms of scope for policy easing (clearly greater for the former). Relatedly, we stress that a further drop in EUR/CHF towards 1.10 is where the SNB might try to step in but whether it will be effective in stemming further franc strength near term is questionable in our view.”
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