- USD/IDR traders remain cautious ahead of the key Inflation data.
- The US PMI data will also entertain momentum traders.
USD/IDR seems apathetic to the latest trade truce between the US and China as it takes the round to 14,128 during early Monday. The pair traders remain cautious ahead of monthly inflation data from Indonesia while US PMIs will direct market moves afterward.
Following the Bank Indonesia’s (BI) status-quo rate-decision, comments from the central bank’s Deputy Governor, Dody Budi Waluyo, that the Indonesian central bank is “open” to cutting interest rates exerted downside pressure on the pair.
However, the sideways trading persists amid lack of fresh catalysts from Indonesia. As a result, today’s June month Inflation and Core Inflation data will be the key to watch. Forecasts suggest Inflation weaken to 0.54% versus 0.68% MoM reading and to 3.18% from 3.32% on a yearly format. Though, Core Inflation (YoY) isn’t expected to change from 3.12%.
Other than Indonesia data, the US manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) from the Markit and the ISM will also be important to watch. While the Markit gauge may remain unchanged at 50.1, its counterpart from the ISM is likely to soften to 51.0 from 52.1 prior during June.
Technical Analysis
Unless breaking a five-month-old support-line, at 14,090 now, chances of the pair’s U-turn to 50-D EMA level of 14,241 can’t b denied. Meanwhile, April month low near 13,974 can please sellers past-14,090 break
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