TD Securities analysts are in line with unanimous consensus in looking for the policy rate to remain unchanged at -0.25%, but the big question is what the Riksbank will do with its policy rate forecasts.
Key Quotes
“Despite much more dovish tones out of the Fed and ECB since the Riksbank last met in April, we do look for the Riksbank to maintain its hiking bias for now.”
“With CPIF ex-energy having printed in line with the Riksbank’s forecasts over the last couple of months, and other underlying inflation measures still trending higher, there’s no urgency to act. But we think that the first rate hike is likely to be pushed back by a quarter or two after the substantial shift in global rates, something that the Riksbank generally puts quite a bit of weight on.”
“With some of the Scandinavian banks looking for the Riksbank to keep its policy rate path unchanged at today’s meeting, we think that our view is on the more dovish end of expectations.”
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