TD Securities analysts expect Friday’s labour market data from Canada to show that the economy added 10,000 jobs in July.
Key quotes
“The goods-producing sector should provide the main engine for job growth following the loss of 30k positions in June; while manufacturing firms may be hesitant to add back workers given ongoing trade tensions, the recent strength of residential construction suggests last month’s 7.5k decline should be short-lived.”
“Elsewhere we look for details to show a rebound in part-time employment, which has seen a 26k decline since May, alongside an unchanged 5.5% unemployment rate.”
“Wage growth should get more attention than usual owing to the recent surge in SEPH – The Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours – earnings for May, which left both measures of monthly wage growth over 3% y/y. Base-effects will provide a tailwind to wage growth for permanent workers as AHE fell by 0.3% in July 2018, however we expect this to be partially offset by mean reversion after the largest one-month increase since 2004, leaving wages up 3.8% y/y.”
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