“There has been a resurgence of talk about a currency war in recent weeks and for good reason,” Rabobank analysts note.
Key quotes
“This week alone central banks in India, the Philippines and New Zealand have all announced deeper policy easing than had been expected while the RBA has been vocal about the possibility of further interest rate cuts.”
“It is likely that these central banks were attempting to use the power of surprise to extract a significant market reaction in the face of slowing growth and weak inflation.”
“While in theory an all-out currency war could bring little or no net change in FX rates, in practice some central banks may be better positioned to knock their currencies lower. By the same token, currencies with safe haven appeal such and the JPY, CHF and USD may be the losers in a currency war and could be subject to broad-based gains despite the threat of central bank action.”
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