According to analysts at Rabobank, today, the New York Fed will conduct another operation to inject more overnight cash into the market and with the effective fed funds rate near the top of the band, these operations may be necessary to transmit the FOMC’s monetary policy decisions.
“The Committee looks set to lower the target band by 25bp again today to maintain the US expansion. However, where the policymakers still see these rate adjustments as ‘insurance cuts’ rather than the start of an easing cycle, our US strategist begs to differ.”
“In his view there is a strong possibility of a third cut this year, probably in October already, as uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook. Moreover, Philip believes that this will be followed by an actual cutting cycle next year as the economy heads into a recession.”
“The decision today will be accompanied by new economic projections, including the dot plot. While the latter should serve as an indicator of where the Committee believes rates will move from here, Philip notes that the June projections did not signal any rate cuts for this year. With a second cut forthcoming, this shows that we should definitely not take the dot plot for granted.”