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India: Growth slowing sharply – ABN AMRO

According to analysts at ABN AMRO, India’s economic growth, which is relatively shielded to the slowdown in global manufacturing – has been slowing sharply since mid-2018, reaching a six-year low of 5.0% YoY in Q2.

Key Quotes

“This slowdown in India was primarily driven by domestic spending, with both private consumption and investment subdued, but the more challenging external backdrop did not help either of course. That implies that India has lost its status of fastest growing giant to China again. While China’s slowdown has continued, Beijing’s ongoing piecemeal fiscal and monetary stimulus has kept it gradual.”

“Growth has also come down sharply over the past quarters in global bellwethers Hong Kong and Singapore, although in Hong Kong escalation of social unrest added to downward momentum as well. Over the past quarters, growth has proven more resilient in Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam, which seem to profit to some extent from the acceleration of shifts in global supply chains due to the US-China conflict.”

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