“The PMIs in China paint an interesting picture. The NBS PMIs (they are the measures as published by the central bank) fell in October,” noted ABN AMRO’s chief economist Han de Jong.
Key quotes
“The manufacturing index fell from 49.8 in September to 48.3 in October while the non-manufacturing index fell from 53.7 to 52.8. That does not look promising. However, the rival Caixin index showed a different picture The manufacturing series rose to 51.7, up from 51.3, but, more importantly, registering its fourth consecutive monthly improvement.”
“A key difference between the NBS measures and the Caixin ones is that the sample of Caixin is more geared towards private sector companies. The Chinese policymakers have taken a range of measures to stimulate economic growth, focussing on the private sector.”
“The relatively better performance of the Caixin PMI therefore may be suggesting that these measures are working. That would be good news for the Chinese economy and also for the world economy at large. But, it is early days yet.”
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