- AUD/USD refrains from breaking 100-day SMA support despite recent pessimism surrounding the US-China trade relations.
- Geopolitical tension concerning Hong Kong and the Middle East exert downside pressure to the sentiment.
- NAB Business Confidence and Conditions data, Fedspeak and Trump’s comments will be in the spotlight.
Although AUD/USD has been under pressure for the last two days, mainly due to the trade/political tension, the quote stays above 100-day SMA, currently around 0.6855, as traders await fresh impulse.
Holiday in the United States (US) limited the market’s reaction to uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal and geopolitical tension concerning Hong Kong and the Middle East.
The recent news from Politico and the Sky News were also mixed as the former signals receding trade tension between the Eurozone and the US while the later is likely to worsen the mood of the US-China trade watchers after a senior US official raised voiced against the Hong Kong issue. It’s worth mentioning that China doesn’t like anyone, especially the US, interfering in its “one country, two systems” motto.
Looking forward, investors will keep an eye over the opening of the US government bond trading for fresh reaction to the latest risk sentiment. On the economic front, Australia’s October month National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Business Confidence and Business Conditions, likely to stay unchanged at 0 and 2 respectively, will be followed for immediate direction.
Comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will be closely observed to forecast the Fed’s next move while the US President Donald Trump is also up for speaking at the Economic Club of New York and could fill the trade headlines.
Technical Analysis
Only if the prices close below 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 0.6847 sellers can take aim at the upward sloping trend line since October-start, at 0.6814, otherwise chances of pair’s recovery to 0.6885, 0.6900 and monthly top near 0.6930 remain on the cards.
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