- Risk apatite, the US dollar and yields dented, supporting the rise in gold prices.
- Bulls look to the 21-day moving average at 1477, en route to a 61.8% Fibo target towards 1490.
Spot gold is currently trading between a range of $1471.56 and $1475.43, buoyed by a slightly risk-off session overnight following Sino/US trade deal headline’s and pessimism as well as a weakening in the greenback and US yields.
Overnight, risk appetite was dented by the news that Trump and Fed Chairman Powell had met to discuss the strength of the dollar. At the same time, there were reports of a CNBC news that Chinese officials were concerned over prior comments with respect to tariffs from Trump, owing to his reluctance to roll back any tariffs that had already been marked. Subsequently, the value of the US dollar fell and the US 2-year yields fell back to 1.59% while the 10-year yields dropped from 1.85% to 1.80%. This enabled the price of gold to rally from $1,456 to a high of $1,475.43 in today’s Asian session.
Meanwhile, investors will continue to gauge prospects for a so-called phase one U.S.-China trade agreement. should there be further pessimism leading to a pullback in the US benchmarks, then gold would likely enjoy further upside from here.
Long-gold narrative could be running out of steam
However, the long-gold narrative could be running out of steam, according to analysts at TD Securities who noted that the CFTC positioning report confirmed their expectations that a break in the yellow metal below $1480/oz prompted speculators to aggressively add shorts and liquidate some longs:
“A Federal Reserve which is less likely to cut rates in the imminent future, a US-Sino trade negotiation which appears to have edged closer to a resolution and firming risk sentiment with equities printing new all-time highs day after day have all made loss aversion a tough sell. In this context, we see a balance of risks that has shifted out of favor for the bulls in the near-term. While we don’t expect significant CTA flow in gold, weakness in the yellow metal could prompt some CTA liquidations in silver and platinum below $16.15/oz and $858/oz respectively.”
Gold levels:
On an hourly basis, the price is holding above the cluster of the 21,50 and 200-hour moving averages and support structure. The 4-hour time frame has the price penetrating the 50 4-hour MA and the confluence of a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of Novembers range at 1470. The 200 4-hour MA meets the 61.8% Fib target of the same rang up at 1488. Bulls need to clear the 21-day moving average at 1477 with a daily close to confirm the bullish commitments for higher territories.
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