ING cites the 2018 contagion while spotting a lack of spillover from the Emerging Market (EM) economies on the Philippines, Indonesia and India.
Key quotes
“Back in 2018, Argentina’s woes, coupled with some other EM difficulties, caused problems nearer to home. In particular, the current account countries of Indonesia, Philippines and India, where local currencies took a battering.”
“The Philippines has recently managed to turn its current account deficit into a surplus. Though that may owe more to the budget delay in government infrastructure spending, and this will need watching in coming months.”
“Indonesia too seems to have at least stabilized the current account, and maybe even improved it a little.”
“I’ll reserve judgment on India. The recent figures have been quite erratic, and it is hard to draw any clear conclusions until we can see further evidence for a trend emerging.”
“In any case, there seems to be no spillover contagion from any of Latam’s woes – probably because they seem largely domestic/political, though that was also the case to a large extent last time, and that didn’t stop it.”
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