A UK Survation poll conducted 26-30 November has the Conservatives in the lead at 42% (+2) vs Labour at 33% (+3).
- Lib Dems: 11% (-4).
- Brexit Party: 3% (-2).
- Green: 4% (+1).
FX implications
We have already seen conflicting polls from reports in the weekend news. The Observer that gives the Tories a 15-point lead over Labour with less than a fortnight until polling day, stating that the gap has narrowed by four points since a week ago. A Savanta ComRes survey for The Sunday Telegraph put the Conservatives on 43 per cent, as a two-point rise since early last week. GBP is likely to remain elevated, however, on a Tory victory and Brexit deal consensus.
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GBP/USD Forecast: Contracting Conservative lead may see the pair gapping lower
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