While the coincident and lagging indicators show that the US economy is still going strong, the leading indicators suggest that the future looks less bright, according to analysts at Rabobank.
Key quotes
“The un-inversion of the yield curve, strong employment growth, solid growth in consumer spending, the low unemployment rate and a possible US-China trade deal do not change our forecast that the US economy is heading for a recession next year.”
“The arguments put forward to dispel our forecast of a recession reveal the absence of a coherent forecasting framework.”
“Our forecasting framework points to a recession in the second half of 2020. This will also force the Fed to slash rates back to zero before the end of 2020.”
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