Traders looking for volatility in USD/JPY in 2020 may face disappointment, as the pair is likely to remain stuck in 101-111 range, according to Tokyo-based FX analysts.
Strength in both yen and the greenback kept the pair immobile this year. The currency has swung less than 8 yen per dollar since January, the least for any year in data going back five decades, as per Bloomberg.
Key quotes (Source: Bloomberg)
Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Tokyo said:
The bias is more for a firmer yen. The risk isn’t for a higher dollar because U.S. yields are likely to fall on doubts over the sustainability of the country’s 10-year expansion.
Tohru Sasaki, head of Japan markets research at JPMorgan Chase Bank in Tokyo said:
While fair value for the pair’s real effective exchange rate is about 90 yen, continued Japanese outbound M&A and foreign investment will keep its advance well short of this level.
Osamu Takashima, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Citigroup Global Markets Japan Inc. said:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in the 105-110 range. It would take a clear turn for the worse in U.S.-China trade relations and heightened political risk from the U.S. presidential election to prompt enough of a flight to safety to see dollar-yen test 100.
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