The playing field for the USD may be about to be re-written completely by the Federal Reserve. The big move higher in EUR/USD is probably mainly driven by position squaring and it may therefore have further legs to go, in the opinion of analysts at Nordea.
“Most European asset managers have had a big long USD position via a low hedge ratio on USD assets. If US equities are sold off then we see a net selling of USD spot due to a low or non-existent hedge of the USD component, that’s the position squaring part.”
“The next move could be driven by increased USD hedge ratios, as FX hedge costs are falling off a cliff. It simply becomes much more opportune for FX managers to increase hedge ratios in USD, when the price drops as fast as now.”
“We choose to increase our EUR/USD target for year-end 2020 to 1.17 as a consequence.”