Analysts at the National Bank of Canada take a look at next’s week key economic numbers to be released in Canada and in the US.
Key Quotes:
“In Canada, a lot of attention will be on March’s consumer price index. A sharp drop in gasoline prices (-19%) during the month could have translated into a 0.4% decline of the headline index before seasonal adjustment (-0.6% after seasonal adjustment). This weak monthly print should lead to a sharp drop in the annual inflation rate, from 2.2% to 1.1% (a negative base effect will also play a role in that decline). We expect the annual rate of CPI-common to remain unchanged at 1.8%. We’ll also get February’s retail sales report. Auto sales may have fell a bit in the month following a strong showing in January, but this decline may have been more than offset by gains in other categories, notably gasoline stations (on account of rising pump prices) and electronics. As such, we expect total sales to have increased 0.2%. Outlays on items other than motor vehicles, for their part, may have grown a more convincing 0.4%. We’ll also keep an eye on the release of wholesale trade sales for February.”
“In the US, the first effects of the coronavirus will certainly be visible in a host of March indicators due to be released this week. Sales of newly-built and existing homes surely retreated in the month but we’ll probably have to wait until April’s data become available to get a better sense of the damage being done in the real estate sector. Durable goods orders, meanwhile, will have suffered badly judging from previously-released indicators such as the Empire and Philly Fed surveys and the ISM Manufacturing Index. In other news, Markit’s flash composite PMI will probably show one of the sharpest (if not the sharpest) monthly drop in private-sector activity in April. As has been the case in recent weeks, the publication of data on initial jobless claims (a timely indicator of the labour market) will attract a lot of attention.”
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