US Initial Jobless Claims: A drop expected to 4.2mn – TDS

The US Administration will release Initial Jobless Claims data on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. Economists at TD Securities share their forecast.

Key quotes

“Google search activity suggests that jobless claims will fall again, with the level still extraordinarily high. We forecast a drop to 4.2mn from 5.2mn last week and as high as 6.9mn in the last week of March.” 

“We estimate an extra 19.3 million claims relative to the previous trend over the last four weeks, equivalent to 11.7% of the labor force. That number will rise to 23.2mn, or 14.1% of the labor force if our forecast for the upcoming week is realized.”