Analysts at ANZ Bank think that the risks to the current rally in risk appetite and by extension the Aussie, remain skewed to the downside.
Key quotes
“Renewed selloff in risk, triggered by solvency rather than liquidity concerns, will be sufficient to drive the Aussie to fresh lows. But the degree of uncertainty around this is high and, for now, sentiment remains positive.”
“Insufficient evidence of a substantial re-opening in the global economy by late May would be enough to bring concerns to the fore. AUD/USD forecast by Jun 20 is 0.60.”
“While fresh lows are still on the cards, the depths of these lows may not be as cavernous as we feared. We are also mindful that a move lower may take longer to manifest, given some of the positives around both currencies. As such, AUD/USD forecast by Sep 20 is 0.54 and 0.56 by Dec 20.”
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