The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which is closely watched in the US (especially by the White House), now has coronavirus-related fatality projections for Canada, Krishen Rangasamy from the National Bank of Canada reports.
Key quotes
“The IHME model suggests fatalities will more than double by August. And that assumes current social distancing measures continue until infections are minimized.”
“Under the IHME’s worst case scenario, however, fatalities hit almost 12,000.”
“The Imperial College of London’s model projects Canadian fatalities to climb past 340,000 by the end of the pandemic under its worst case scenario of a high R0 (i.e. a measure of contagion) and no mitigation measures from the government.”
“As federal and provincial governments ponder ways to reopen the economy in the absence of a vaccine, they will do well to not over-promise and instead err on the side of caution.”
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