Previewing Statistics Canada’s labour market report that will be published on Friday, TD Securities analysts said they expect 600,000 jobs to be added across the Canadian economy.
Key quotes
“A headline print that’s slightly below consensus will have no impact on upcoming BoC decisions, and so long as job growth accelerates from last month’s 290k we think the recovery narrative remains intact. An upside surprise may prove more meaningful as a more rapid recovery in labour market conditions, alongside a continuation of low COVID infections, would suggest that emergency government measures (CEWS, CERB) may go underutilized.”
“The CAD has languished against most major crosses in recent sessions. That might allow for CAD to regain its footing should the jobs report best expectations (both our’s and consensus). Our bias is that the CAD will be satisfied with a solid jobs number even if it comes in below expectations.”
“We think the CAD could reflect concern if we see a substantial disappointment, perhaps below 500k. Ultimately, the data will need to be taken in conjunction with the tone in risk sentiment however, as that remains the dominant factor.”
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