Analysts at CIBC consider the US economy could have added 1.1 million jobs in July. The employment report is due next Friday at 12:30 GMT. In June, payrolls rose by 4.8 million.
“Despite the deterioration in the outlook in recent weeks, both initial and continuing claims are still down relative to the previous month’s payrolls survey reference week. That suggests that 1.1 million jobs could have been added in July, a marked deceleration from the 4.8 million added in June. That would leave only 39% of the jobs lost through April recouped as of July, and 13.6 million fewer Americans employed than in February, proving that the US labor market has a long way to go to heal still.”
“The labor market could stall in August if the virus continues to spread rapidly. The three most impacted states—California, Florida, and Texas- account for one quarter of total US employment, and have tightened social distancing in many sectors in recent weeks. The fact that job losses have been tilted towards lower-income occupations makes the next fiscal support package even more urgent in order to avoid derailing the recovery.”
“We are less optimistic than the consensus, which could add to fears around the stalled recovery, seeing the USD and yields fall.”