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Consumer Confidence August Preview: Optimism to come

Confidence is expected to rise marginally in August after the July retreat. The figures carry a limited market impact for this important but background economic data, according to FXStreet’s analyst Joseph Trevisani.

Key quotes

“The consumer sentiment index from the non-profit business group, the Conference Board (CB), is forecast to rise to 93 in August from July’s 92.6. While this will be appreciably above April’s panic low of 85.7, it is a continuation of July’s uncertain retreat from the 98 reading in June.”

“The retreat in consumer sentiment in July and August has not been accompanied by a drop in economic activity. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow track for the third quarter has more than doubled from 11.9% on July 31 to 25.6% on August 18. Retail sales maintained a pace in July that in normal circumstances would be a sign of a healthy consumer economy.”

“With the incidence of Covid-19 cases continuing to decline it is only a matter of time before that improving outlook is reflected in consumer optimism, if not August, perhaps September.”

“Consumer sentiment is not market-moving information but it will help to set the background for the August data to come.”


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