EUR/CHF closed beneath the lower end of the neutral range at 1.01725/22 on Thursday, completing a large top, which is ideally reinforced by a weekly close today. Analysts at Credit Suisse look for further weakness to unfold and see the next support at the 200-day average at 1.0679.
Key quotes
“EUR/CHF saw a strong break of the lower end of the broad range at 1.0725/22, completing a large top to shift our bias to the downside, which is ideally reinforced by a weekly close.”
“With daily MACD momentum now also clearly pointing lower, we see support initially at 1.0702/00, then 1.0689/88, ahead of the 200-day average at 1.0679. Whilst we would expect this to hold at first, below can see support next at 1.0650, ahead of the low of July and psychological inflection point at 1.0607/00. Beyond here would see support next at the 78.6% retracement of the May/June surge at 1.0593, ahead of the ‘measured top objective’ seen at 1.0580.”
“Resistance in contrast is seen initially at 1.0712, the back at the “neckline” to the top at 1.0733/36, where we would expect to see fresh sellers. Removal of here though would instead see a move back to 1.0750, above which would see a minor base complete to negate the top and suggest further upside.”
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