NZD/USD Price Analysis: Defensive Bears moving to breakeven

• NZD/USD has melted to the downside and has given bears the greenlight to manoeuvre.
• There is the risk that price moves in on trendline resistance for last upside test. 

NZD/USD has been in the hands of the bears following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Governor Orr’s comment at a conference yesterday, saying that “we’re going to hold it [the OCR] there till at least February-March next year”.

The market presumed it was an unintentional slip, as until now, guidance has been “at least 12 months” from March.

Meanwhile, it played nicely into the hands of the bears expecting a break and waiting for the confirmation:

• NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bears wait for confirmation of the downside

The downside outlook is in accordance with the monthly analysis as follows:

The monthly chart is displaying the prospect of a reverse head and shoulders which offers a bearish bias while the price is below the monthly resistance.

The daily outlook was as follows:

The 4-hour chart was predicted to move to resistance and falter as follows:

Today, bears had the opportunity to move stops to breakeven on the meltdown over the past 24-hours.

The price is moving back to restest the trendline support, turned counter-trend resistance as follows:

The state of play from here, according to the market structure, is as follows: 

A restest of the counter trendline and subsequent hold will likely confirm the downside and encourage further offers. 

A break above, however, will jeopardise breakeven buy stops at around 0.6610/30 and a run above 0.6640 will encourage a test of the 0.6670 highs.