Barnabas Gan, Economist at UOB Group, evaluates the latest data in the Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in Singapore.
Key Quotes
“Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) surged 12.8% y/y (+7.0% m/m sa) in January 2021, beating market estimates for a slower advance of 5.2% y/y (+3.0% m/m sa). Total trade however continued to decline for 10 straight months by 1.9% y/y in January, dragged by imports which fell 5.2% y/y during the same period.”
“Both electronic exports (+13.5% y/y) and non-electronic exports (+12.5% y/y) rose.”
“The strong performance in January’s NODX reinforces our view for an optimistic external environment for Singapore. Into 2021, the global economy is expected to recover further from the recession seen in 2020. This will likely support global export demand, and with it, drive economic performance for export-oriented economies such as Singapore.”
“The improving global economic backdrop and rising oil prices are strong drivers to lift Singapore’s export momentum in 2021. This suggests that shipments in products that had been weak (such as chemicals, petrochemicals, and assembled PCBs) may turn positive in the year ahead. Still, there are pronounced uncertainties regarding how COVID-19 may evolve, which may quickly dissipate the optimism felt to-date. As such, we remain cautiously optimistic that NODX will expand by 1.0% in 2021, against Enterprise Singapore’s outlook of between 0 and 2%.”
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