Rising US yields have taken USD/JPY higher with JPY’s sensitivity to US rates openly in play. Economists at DBS bank assume USD’s rise from January’s 102.59 lows should start to lose momentum once the pair nears the 106.95 level.
Key quotes
“JPY sensitivity to US yields is obvious. USD is dragged higher as the US Treasury 10-year yield fetched its highest since last August with a 1.331% high.”
“In the near-term, as long as USD/JPY stays above 104.13, there is a fair chance for it to continue advancing past a 38.2% Fibonacci marker at 106.27 to meet the calibrated target of the wedge at 106.95.”
“USD’s advance would look for a pause as the next Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting on 19 March draws closer, for which positions would be adjusted. The BoJ effective exchange rate is nearing the 102 lows last sighted in early January, which should allow for a phase of normalisation.”
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