EUR/USD needs to hold below 1.1991/92 to suggest the rebound post the FOMC last night is corrective only ahead of a retest of the rising 200-day average and low at 1.1847/35 and eventually 1.1695, per Credit Suisse.
See: EUR/USD set to fall to 1.16 in 12 months as the dollar dip is transitory – Danske Bank
Key quotes
“Despite the strength seen on Wednesday evening, the 38.2% retracement of the fall from late February and price resistance at 1.19991 has capped again and only above here would suggest a more important low may be in place above the 200-day average for a deeper recovery to 1.2032/39 initially, the 38.2% retracement of the entire fall from early January. This is seen as the barrier to a test of what we would look to be tougher resistance at the 55-day average, currently seen at 1.2093.”
“Resistance at 1.1991/92 capping can still keep the risk lower with support now seen at 1.1954 initially, then 1.1918.”
“Below 1.1882 is needed to open the door to a retest of the recent low and 200-day average at 1.1847/35. Beneath here can target the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2020/2021 uptrend at 1.1695.”
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