- USD/TRY stays depressed near intraday low, MACD teases bears.
- CBRT may hike the benchmark rate from 17% to 18%.
- Technically bearish bias awaits fundamental confirmation between 100-day and 200-day SMA.
USD/TRY stays mildly offered, currently down 0.12% around 7.4945, while heading into Thursday’s European session. Even so, the pair stays between the 100-day and 200-day SMA ahead of today’s monetary policy meeting of the Turkish central bank CBRT.
Read: Turkey: CBRT to hike rates by 100bps to 18.0% amid market pressures – MUFG
Given the rate hike expectations joining the receding bullish bias of MACD, USD/TRY sellers remain hopeful.
Though, a clear downside break of 200-day SMA, currently around 7.4400, becomes necessary for the seller’s entry.
Following that, the monthly low near 7.2220 and early February tops near 7.2060 should return to the chart.
Meanwhile, the pair’s upside break of 100-day SMA, at 7.5516 now, on a daily closing basis, backed by CBRT surprise, will eye for the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of November 2020 to February 2021 downside, around 7.7400.
If at all, the USD/TRY bulls dominate past-7.7400, the monthly peak of 7.7881 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level close to 7.9400 will be in focus.
USD/TRY daily chart
Trend: Further weakness expected
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