April’s ECB meeting is not expected to bring any headline grabbing changes in policy or economic forecasts, but there is plenty of potential for nuances from today’s meeting to keep market commentators busy for days. According to economists at Rabobank, the EUR could draw some influence from the press conference that followed today’s ECB policy announcement. Caution from the ECB President could curtail any additional attempts on the upside in EUR/USD today.
Consensus appears to be pointing to a reversal in the higher pace of purchases in June
“The position of US treasury yields has been the overwhelming influence for EUR/USD this year and with these currently on the back foot, there is potential for EUR/USD to sustain levels above 1.20 in the near-term.
“Based mostly on the improved growth outlook in the US, we see scope for push towards EUR/USD 1.17 on a 3 to 6 mth view.”
“It will be no surprise to see hints that weekly asset purchases through the PEPP may be rolled back to pre-March meeting levels in H2. That said, Lagarde is likely to be guarded against appearing too optimistic. COVID-19 is currently raging in India and in various S.American countries and, with given new variants, she will be mindful that another wave in Europe cannot be ruled out.”
“The 100-day SMA should offer resistance at EUR/USD 1.2057.”
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