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AUD/USD Price Analysis: AUD Bulls Welcome RBA’s 25bps Hike

  • The dollar is soaring against the Australian dollar after positive US data.
  • The RBA raised rates by 25bps to 3.1%, the highest in ten years.
  • The RBA expects Q4 inflation to be 8% higher than a year earlier.

Today’s AUD/USD price analysis is bearish as dollar strength continues after yesterday’s upbeat US data. The markets, searching for indications of a pause, viewed Australia’s central bank’s decision to raise interest rates to a 10-year high on Tuesday as modestly hawkish.

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The bank maintained its forecast that further increases would be necessary to curb inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a 25 basis points hike to 3.1%, concluding its final policy meeting of the year.

Governor Philip Lowe remarked in a statement that it was essentially consistent with those from previous months that the board expected to raise rates more in the coming months. Still, he emphasized that it would not be on a pre-set path.

The central bank will now have until at least February, when it meets again to discuss policy following a break for the holiday season, to evaluate the effects of its most vicious tightening cycle in decades.

According to projections made by the central bank, the quarterly inflation report, due in January, is anticipated to reveal that consumer inflation in the fourth quarter was roughly 8% higher than a year before.

The Australian dollar continued to increase after the policy decision was announced, reaching an intraday high of $0.6737.

AUD/USD key events today

Investors will pay attention to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monthly rate statement. It contains the result of the bank’s interest rate decision and explains the economic factors that affected the decision.

AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bearish divergence

AUD/USD price analysis

The price in the 4-hour chart is trading below the 30-SMA, and the RSI is below 50. This shows that bears are holding the reins. This bearish move comes after bulls came up against the 0.6850 resistance and failed to break above. The RSI made a bearish divergence, showing the bullish trend had weakened.

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Since then, the price has broken below 0.6778 and the 30-SMA and is looking set to make lower lows and lower highs. This indicates the trend has changed and will remain bearish as long as the price stays below the 30-SMA, with the next target at 0.6650.

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Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal is a market analyst, prop fund trader and mentor, serving the industry with his analysis and educational content since 2011. The author has great exposure to different financial markets and institutions. He's well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.