- The bias is bearish despite temporary rebounds.
- A new lower low activates more declines.
- The US CPI should bring sharp movements.
The GBP/USD price is in a downtrend, trading at 1.2460. The pair could fall further as the outlook is bearish. Yesterday, the UK reported some positive data on unemployment claims and wage growth, which made the pair bounce a bit.
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However, today, the UK GDP data shocked the market with a 0.5% contraction, much worse than the expected 0.2% decline. Other indicators, such as construction, services, and industrial production, are disappointing. Later today, the UK will release more data on the leading index and GDP estimate, but they may not have much impact.
The market is now waiting for the US inflation data, which could be the key factor for the pair. The market expects higher inflation in August than in July, both on a monthly and yearly basis.
Higher inflation could boost the US dollar as the Fed may have to act soon to tighten its policy. The US retail sales data, producer prices, and the European Central Bank meeting could also move the pair tomorrow.
GBP/USD Price Technical Analysis: No respite for the buyers
The GBP/USD pair is facing strong selling pressure. The pair fell again after a brief recovery. It tested the 1.25 level, which is a psychological barrier, and now it could head to the 1.2445 level, a previous low.
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As you can see from the hourly chart, the pair failed to stay above the trend line, which means more losses are likely. A new low below 1.2445 could confirm the downtrend continuation.
Only if the pair bounces back above 1.2445 and 1.2500 could indicate bullish momentum. A bigger recovery may be possible if the pair breaks above 1.2500.
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