Home USD/JPY Forecast: Dollar Stays Firm Against Yen Ahead of CPI

USD/JPY Forecast: Dollar Stays Firm Against Yen Ahead of CPI

  • The dollar held firm ahead of the CPI report.
  • The yen retraced gains from Kazuo Ueda’s remarks.
  • A surge in oil prices has raised worries of inflationary pressures in the US.

The dollar has been strong before the US inflation report, contributing to the bullish USD/JPY forecast. Moreover, it strengthened against the yen as traders continued to analyze comments made by Japan’s top central banker. 

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The US currency saw an increase of approximately 0.2% against the yen, reaching 147.39. This move marked a solid retracement of its most substantial one-day percentage gain in two months. This occurred Monday following remarks from Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda. 

According to Alvin Tan, the head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets, investors had more time to consider Ueda’s comments thoroughly. Moreover, Tan noted, “To our understanding, the statement was somewhat conditional, as (Ueda) did not make any firm promises.”

Additionally, influential ruling party lawmaker Hiroshige Seko indicated his preference for maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy on Tuesday. This came after Ueda’s comments, which had led to a strengthening yen and higher bond yields. 

Recently, the yen has been weakening against the dollar, primarily due to the BOJ’s dovish stance compared to the Fed. The Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive rate-hike cycle in March 2022.

Data revealed that Japan’s annual wholesale inflation had slowed for the eighth consecutive month in August. However, it remained at 3.2%, surpassing the central bank’s 2% target. 

As markets awaited critical US inflation data, concerns grew due to a surge in oil prices. This raised worries that inflationary pressures might be more deeply rooted than anticipated.

USD/JPY key events today

Today, market participants are anxious to watch: 

  • Monthly headline US inflation.
  • Annual headline US inflation.
  • Core monthly US inflation.

USD/JPY technical forecast: Bulls set to challenge 147.80 resistance.

USD/JPY technical forecast
USD/JPY 4-hour chart

The USD/JPY pair has crossed the charts above the 30-SMA and 147.00 key levels. The bullish retracement has become a reversal as bulls have taken back control with the break above the SMA. 

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Moreover, The RSI now supports bullish momentum, which could propel the price to the nearest resistance at 147.80. This will also allow the price to fill the gap it made when it broke below the SMA. A break above the 147.80 resistance would make a higher high, further confirming the bullish trend.

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Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal is a market analyst, prop fund trader and mentor, serving the industry with his analysis and educational content since 2011. The author has great exposure to different financial markets and institutions. He's well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.