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AUD/USD Daily Outlooks

AUD/USD Outlook: Aussie Gains Despite Soft Retail Sales

  • In August, Australian retail sales saw a modest increase, missing forecasts.
  • Job vacancies in Australia decreased from record levels.
  • Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from its record low of 3.4%.

The AUD/USD outlook improved as the pair gained 0.3% after hitting the 10-month low overnight amid the dollar’s surge. This rebound occurred despite Australian retail sales data falling short of expectations earlier in the day. 

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Notably, Australian retail sales rose slightly in August as consumers reduced spending due to elevated living expenses and high borrowing costs. Consequently, it signaled interest rates might not have to rise further.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Thursday showed retail sales rose 0.2% in August from July, falling short of analysts’ forecast of a 0.3% gain. Meanwhile, job vacancies in Australia fell from record levels in the three months to August. This decline added to signs that the country’s labor shortage might be easing as interest rate hikes work to constrain demand.

Notably, figures showed that vacancies fell by 8.9% from the last quarter to 390,400, the biggest decline and the lowest level in two years. That was a drop of 15% from a year ago. However, it was still 71.5% higher than in February 2020. 

Additionally, data showed that Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from a historic low of 3.4%. Analysts expect that the demand for labor, which has remained resilient in the country, will slow down amid high interest rates.

AUD/USD key events today

Some of the major events investors are watching from the US include:

  • The US GDP report.
  • A speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
  • The initial jobless claims report.
  • The pending home sales report.

AUD/USD technical outlook: Price rebounds from recent lows.

AUD/USD technical outlook
AUD/USD 4-hour chart

On the charts, the AUD/USD price has recovered from recent lows, pushing above the 0.6360 key level. However, the general direction for the price is still down as it trades far below the 30-SMA. Moreover, the RSI fell into the oversold region for the first time since bears took over, indicating increased bearish momentum. 

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Therefore, the current rebound might be temporary, pausing at the nearest resistance to allow a resumption of the downtrend. Bulls might retest the 0.6400 resistance before bears seek new lows.

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Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal is a market analyst, prop fund trader and mentor, serving the industry with his analysis and educational content since 2011. The author has great exposure to different financial markets and institutions. He's well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.