The GBP/USD weekly forecast is bullish as the pair ended the challenging week marking a 2-week top around 1.2500. The pair’s trajectory hinges on speculation about future central bank actions and the upcoming manufacturing PMI data.
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Ups and downs of last week
The US market, brimming with data, suggested the Federal Reserve (Fed) had concluded its interest rate hiking cycle. Coupled with subdued US Treasury bond yields, this sentiment allowed GBP/USD to recover lost ground.
Soft US economic data fueled expectations of an extended Fed pause, with markets already pricing in cuts by May 2015. Notable indicators included a significant drop in US PPI in October, a US CPI inflation rate slowing to 3.2% YoY, and a negative 0.1% month-on-month retail sales in October. Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims reached 231,000 in the week ending November 11.
The dollar index touched a two-month low as the 10-year UST Bond yield dropped below 4.50%. Correspondingly, GBP/USD strengthened, surpassing the 1.2506 mark.
GBP buyers remained resilient despite the British CPI falling to 4.6% YoY in October. In September, the UK ILO Unemployment Rate held at 4.2%, while Average Earnings Excluding Bonus increased by 7.7% 3M YoY. Market bets adjusted for potential BoE interest rate cuts in 2024.
Sterling rallied against the dollar but faced headwinds towards the week’s end due to concerns about the Chinese property sector. Weakness in US Treasury bond yields led to a decline in USD/JPY, offsetting GBP/USD losses after weak UK retail sales dropped by 0.3% in October.
GBP/USD key events/data next week
Thin trading is anticipated on Wednesday due to Thanksgiving on Thursday.
On Monday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak, though not necessarily about monetary policy. No significant events are slated in the US economic calendar for that day.
Key releases on Wednesday include US dollar valuations influenced by US Existing Home Sales and Minutes of Fed’s November meeting.
Thursday focuses on the UK’s early Manufacturing and Services PMIs, while Friday features the United States S&P Global PMIs.
Speeches by Federal Reserve policymakers will be closely observed for insights into the US interest rate outlook.
GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls keeping control
The GBP/USD price wobbles around the 200-day and 100-day SMAs. The pair needs a strong impetus to break and stay above this resistance zone.
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However, the 20-day and 50-day SMAs have created a bullish crossover. It shows the potential of a continued rally. The 1.2500 level remains a tough nut. On the flip side, 1.2350 is a strong support.
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Saqib Iqbal
