Bitcoin Tests $81,300 as Hot CPI Revives Fed Hike Bets

Bitcoin slid toward $81,300 on Wednesday, 14 October 2026, after hotter-than-expected US inflation lifted the odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike this month.

The Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% year on year in September, above the 3.6% forecast and up from August’s 3.4%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September CPI release. Headline prices were up 0.6% on the month as expected, but core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% against a 0.2% consensus estimate.

Leveraged traders paid immediately. CoinGlass data showed more than $100 million in positions liquidated within an hour of the release, and the running 24-hour total had climbed past $220 million by Wednesday afternoon. It marked a second large flush in as many days after a wave of over $800 million on 13 October.

Hike odds jump after the print

Markets repriced the Fed quickly. Kalshi’s October market showed the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at 55%, up from 21%, while the CME FedWatch tool put it at 44% to 49%, up from 22%. The Fed meets on 27 and 28 October, having already raised rates by 25 basis points in September to a 3.75% to 4.00% range, its first increase in more than three years.

Treasury yields moved with the repricing. The 2-year yield rose roughly 10 basis points to about 4.9% and the 10-year climbed to around 5.3%, close to 24-year highs, keeping risk assets under pressure.

Rates traders fly blind before the decision

Officials will decide without their preferred inflation gauge. Can-Luca Köymen of Sygnum Bank noted that September PCE data will not be published until 29 October, the day after the rate decision, leaving policymakers to weigh the risk of a second consecutive hike without it. The bank still expects a hold.

“Core at 0.3%, above consensus, puts an October hike back in play after the market had faded it to one in five”, Köymen said.

The energy picture explains the print. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in September and accounted for more than half the headline increase, with the broader energy index up 5.2% as oil has held above $90 a barrel for roughly two months amid the US-Iran conflict. September made it the 67th consecutive month of inflation above the Fed’s 2% target.

The levels that matter next

Bitcoin traded near $81,500 to $82,000 intraday, down between 1.5% and 2.15% depending on the snapshot. Bitget analyst Lewis Huang flagged $81,300 as the immediate support. Losing it could open $80,365 and then $78,003, while bulls need to reclaim $84,245 before higher resistance near $87,422. The Producer Price Index is due Thursday, 15 October, the next test before the Fed decision.