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Below are some of the key highlights from the BoE Agents’ summary of business conditions for Q3 2018 and the latest monetary policy statement.

Agent’s Summary:

   “¢   Consumer spending growth ticked up modestly, boosted by warm weather.
   “¢   Rising uncertainty from Brexit leaves investment intentions soft.
   “¢   Export and domestic manufacturing output growth slowed but remain above average.
   “¢   Recruitment difficulties stay elevated, average pay settlements a little higher than a year ago.

Monetary policy statement:

   “¢   MPC notes a rise in the level of concern regarding Brexit negotiations, as flagged by financial markets.
   “¢   PMI surveys/ Bank’s Agent’s point to growing uncertainty about the economic outlook.
   “¢   Pay measures a little stronger than bank foresaw in the August report, consistent with a further rise in earnings.
   “¢   MPC’s August projection appears to be broadly on track.
   “¢   The committee sees potential negativity from trade talk tensions between US and China.
   “¢   Impact of pass-through from August hike similar to the response seen after November 2017 rate rise.
   “¢   Rotation in demand, away from household consumption towards net trade/business investment less marked than previously assumed.
   “¢   Bank rate likely to rise at a gradual pace and to a limited extent.

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