My hunch is that risks lie on the side of weaker growth
See a longer period of excess supply than forecast in the august mpr
Sees more persistent inflation undershoot
A downside scenario would be very costly
I consider it quite likely that additional monetary easing will be appropriate
There is no automatic time limit on our willingness to maintain a loose monetary policy stance
Relative to the MPR forecast, Brexit risks probably lie on the side of a thinner trade deal, a less-smooth transition.
Desire to self-insure against local COVID-19 lockdown risk would probably create widespread caution, desire for higher savings
There are no local versions of furlough, loan schemes, so households and businesses would bear brunt of local lockdowns.
developing story …
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