According to analysts at Danske Bank, today’s key event will be the vote in the House of Commons on Theresa May’s Brexit deal at 20:00 CET.
“As of now, we still expect May to suffer another defeat despite the new Brexit deal but it depends on how well it is received, especially by the supporting DUP party. We still assign a 15% probability of the deal passing today. If it is voted down, the next step will be for the UK parliament to vote on whether it can support a no deal Brexit tomorrow.”
“In the UK, we also get monthly GDP for January today. PMIs indicate growth remains subdued around 0.0-0.1% q/q in Q1.”
“On the other side of the Atlantic, the day brings February US CPI core numbers , which we expect rose 0.2% m/m, implying a core inflation rate unchanged at 2.2% y/y. Moreover, we will also keep an eye on the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index given the recession fears in financial markets.”