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According to analysts at Danske Bank, today’s key event will be the vote in the House of Commons on Theresa May’s Brexit deal at 20:00 CET.

Key Quotes

“As of now, we still expect May to suffer another defeat despite the new Brexit deal but it depends on how well it is received, especially by the supporting DUP party. We still assign a 15% probability of the deal passing today. If it is voted down, the next step will be for the UK parliament to vote on whether it can support a no deal Brexit tomorrow.”

“In the UK, we also get monthly GDP for January today. PMIs indicate growth remains subdued around 0.0-0.1% q/q in Q1.”

“On the other side of the Atlantic, the day brings February US CPI core numbers , which we expect rose 0.2% m/m, implying a core inflation rate unchanged at 2.2% y/y. Moreover, we will also keep an eye on the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index given the recession fears in financial markets.”