The EU Referendum in the UK on June 23rd is a very tight race with implications for not only the pound, but also the euro, the dollar, the yen and basically all markets. A decision to stay could trigger a big relief rally, a Fed hike and some comfort for the euro. A Brexit decision could devastate the pound, deal a blow to the euro and certainly support the safe haven yen and dollar.
This page features every related update: from the background, through the various previews and scenarios, polls and then the actual news, market impact and aftermath. All the updates right here:
Update: UK leaves the EU – it is official – expect more crashes
- Nov 3, 11:06: UK court rules that parliament needs to approve Brexit (for now) – GBP/USD shoots up but retreats: The UK government loses the lawsuit. Parliament has the last word on Brexit, and this complicates matters. Most MPs were in the...
- Nov 1, 7:58: GBP/USD: ‘Brexit II’: L/T Charts Point To 1.05 As A Real Possibility – Citi: The British pound was somewhat cheered by the extension of Mark Carney’s tenure at the Bank of England. Nevertheless, it...
- Oct 18, 11:04: Brexit effect: inflation is rising in the UK – GBP unimpressed: One of the longer lasting effects of the Brexit vote is a weaker pound. Contrary to stock markets and economic...
- Sep 13, 8:24: We No Longer Expect A Mild UK Recession Or A BoE November Cut – BofA Merrill: Is Brexit bad, bearable or brilliant we asked in our recent podcast. It seems that the team at Bank of...
- Sep 5, 10:30: UK Services PMI beats with 52.9 – GBP/USD rises: A winning streak of UK PMIs: the most important one, for the biggest sector, services, jumps 5.4 points to 52.9 points....
- Aug 16, 10:30: UK post-Brexit headline inflation at 0.6%, PPI leaps – GBP rises: No big surprises in the UK inflation report: CPI m/m is down 0.1% as expected, year over year it is...
- Aug 16, 9:36: Brexit impact on forex [Infographic]: On June 24th, Britain unexpectedly voted to leave the European Union causing widespread chaos in the global markets. Today, we...
- Jul 22, 10:30: UK post Brexit special PMIs show 7 year lows – GBP/USD plunges: The UK services sector does not look good: 47.4 on the services PMI. The manufacturing PMI is also negative at...
- Jul 20, 11:29: Brexit? What Brexit? BOE survey shows less reasons to worry: The Bank of England has released its report concerning business conditions in July. According to the regional agents, uncertainty has markedly...
- Jul 19, 15:43: GBP/USD falls to support – 3 reasons: The pound is under pressure once again, falling to the lows seen last week, just before the BOE sent it...
- Jul 14, 10:22: GBP/USD rises ahead of the BOE – Markets pricing out a cut?: It has been quite a week in cable trading: after an initial fall, the clearing up of the Conservative Contest sent...
- Jul 14, 8:30: Will Carney cause carnage to the pound? [Video]: Following the big Brexit shock, BOE governor Mark Carney sent signals about stimulus now in July and further stimulus in...
- Jul 14, 7:37: GBP Into BoE: Any Bounce A Selling Opportunity – BofA Merrill: The Bank of England is about to lay out its new policy and the pound is slightly lower. What’s next...
- Jul 13, 21:20: GBP/USD reached key levels pre BoE interest rate decission: Tomorrow is the interest rate decision and general monetary policy summary coming out of the Bank of England. This is...
- Jul 12, 18:10: GBP/USD reaches high resistance on ongoing May effect: The recovery of the pound continues: it is already 400 pips above the pre-Leadsom quit lows of 1.2850. At current...
- Jul 12, 8:37: GBP/USD extends gains to 1.3080 – May it be a sell opportunity?: The higher level of political uncertainty continues supporting the British pound. The end of the contest in the UK Conservative...
- Jul 11, 13:34: GBP/USD temporarily tops 1.30 as Theresa May ready to enter No. 10, maybe today: Theresa May could become UK Prime Minister as early as today. Update: she will enter 10 Downing on Wednesday evening. Her last standing...
- Jul 11, 12:42: GBP/USD bounces back big as Leadsom quits: Reports are out that Andrea Leadsom is about to pull out of the race for leader of the UK Conservative...
- Jul 11, 9:39: GBP/USD prospects are not so good – 3 opinions: GBP/USD fell for a third week in a row but there may be more in the pipeline, all because of Brexit....
- Jul 8, 10:11: Does EUR/USD need a bank run to break out of range?: EUR/USD certainly dropped on the shocking result of the EU Referendum. A peak to trough move of over 500 was clearly...
- Jul 8, 10:00: These 3 Metrics Suggest GBP Can Go Much Lower – Deutsche Bank: GBP/USD is still flirting with 1.30. Deutsche Bank joins our view that there is lots of room to the downside...
- Jul 7, 16:09: GBP/USD still flirting with 1.30 – 3 reasons why it could fall: After tumbling down below 1.30 early on Wednesday, cable did managed to recover and climb above 1.30. The high was...
- Jul 6, 18:25: 3 more property funds are “gated” – GBP/USD still holding on (for now): Henderson, Colombia Threadneedle and Canada Life have joined the ranks of Standard Life, Aviva and M&G in suspending withdrawals. The funds...
- Jul 6, 16:10: Under 1.30: what’s next for GBP/USD? Two opinions: GBP/USD broke down below 1.30 but did not go too far after the initial shock. More to come or is...
- Jul 6, 7:00: Brexit Crash 2 – Live Market Open @ 7:00 GMT: Nearly two weeks after the big Brexit vote and just as we thought things have stabilized for a while, the...
- Jul 6, 6:39: GBP/USD goes deep under 1.30 – levels to watch: Standard Life, Aviva and M&G already announced withdrawal freezes. Who’s next? We talked about how the construction sector led the...
- Jul 5, 16:44: UK: The housing sector giveth, the housing sector taketh away: The recovery in the UK was led by the housing sector. For long months, the construction PMI was the leader...
- Jul 5, 16:22: 3 markets – 3 totally different Brexit reactions – MM #108: We begin by analyzing the market reactions to Brexit, this time with some perspective and 3 totally different reactions. We...
- Jul 5, 9:20: 3 big Brexit pressures on the pound – GBP/USD back to low range: Signs that the Brexit is already taking its toll are accumulating. A mix of surveys, news reports and a political...
- Jul 5, 9:03: Sell Any GBP Rallies: Risks For A Drop To 1.25 Sooner Than Later – BofA Merrill: The fallout from Brexit is far from over. Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees further falls and explains: Here is...
- Jul 4, 23:12: EUR/USD: En-Route To 1.05 In 3M; Market To Keep Selling Rallies – Credit Suisse: EUR/USD is struggling with Brexit and there is more potential to the downside. And that’s not the only reason. Here is...
- Jul 4, 11:10: 7 Facts about Brexit – Infographic: One even shook the markets like no other this year. People knew about it and it still got them unprepared....
- Jul 1, 12:12: Positioning For A Grind Downwards In EUR/USD – BNPP: EUR/USD dropped quite a bit on Brexit but showed some strength as well. It could further fall, say the people at...
- Jul 1, 11:13: GBP/USD forecasts for 1, 3 and 12 months post-Brexit: One week after the big Brexit crash and as a new quarter begins, it is time to lift our heads from...
- Jun 30, 17:56: GBP Still Vulnerable To Further Declines And EUR Won’t Be Immune To That – ANZ: GBP/USD resumed its falls on Carney’s speech but there may be more to come, with sterling not falling alone: Here is...
- Jun 30, 17:01: Carney Crash – GBP/USD falls to support on BOE’s easing promise: Carny made a special appearance and offers easing during the summer as a reaction to Brexit. He makes a heavy hint...
- Jun 29, 18:05: 3 reasons for the extended GBP/USD rally and 3 reasons why it can fall from here: GBP/USD is trading back at the 1.35 handle, around 400 pips off the lows seen on Monday. The reaction to...
- Jun 29, 13:33: Assessing the chances of a no-Brexit / Bregret [Video]: The clear decision of the UK to leave the EU is already taking its economic toll. In addition, British politicians...
- Jun 29, 12:13: Why EUR Is Not A ‘Surrogate’ For Bearish GBP Trades? – Morgan Stanley: Following the big Brexit, EUR/USD fell but at a much lower scale in comparison to the pound. What’s going on?...
- Jun 29, 11:22: EU-turn? GBP/USD edges up: Speculation continues mounting is the UK will indeed leave the EU or that there will be a regret on Brexit...
- Jun 28, 17:45: Chance Of ‘No Brexit’ Scenario Up To 30% – Nordea: We wrote that nobody wants to push the Brexit button and that “Bregret” is still an option. The team at...
- Jun 28, 12:19: GBP/USD already 200 pips off the lows – sell opportunity or Bregret hopes?: Forex trading is never a one way street. What comes down must come up, at least temporarily. And that is...
- Jun 28, 8:03: Has GBP/USD stabilized or can it further fall? Two opinions: Following Brexit, the pound suffered quite a bit. However, today we are seeing some stabilization. Can it recover? Here are...
- Jun 27, 17:46: Nobody wants to push the Brexit Button – Will Bregret lead to Bremain?: Article 50 of the European Treaty triggers fear among British policymakers. It seems that nobody wants to touch it with a barge...
- Jun 27, 15:41: Canadian dollar weathers Brexit quite well: The British decision to leave the EU continues sending shock-waves through financial markets with wide ranging implications. In currency markets, the...
- Jun 27, 14:15: Brexit Breakdown – What’s Next? MM #107: The UK exit of the EU is a huge event and we organize the information for you: what happened in...
- Jun 27, 13:33: Weathering Brexit: Updates from 15 brokers: Before the big EU Referendum, we collected Brexit preparations from 41 brokers, with most of them limiting leverage. Other measures were taken as...
- Jun 27, 12:55: No mercy for the pound: 3 recent developments and a new 31 year low: Soothing words for markets from Osborne? That helped for a very short time and resumes its falls and is basically...
- Jun 27, 8:21: Osborne offers soothing words, does NOT quit – GBP/USD rises: UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has not spoken out since the historic Leave vote the EU by British voters....
- Jun 27, 0:14: GBP/USD resumes crash in the new week – 9 reasons: GBP/USD opens the new week with a weekend gap worth 1.75% and trades at 1.3418 at the time of writing. This...
- Jun 27, 0:00: Post Brexit: New Targets For GBP/USD, EUR/GBP – BTMU: Following the big Brexit vote, BTMU has new targets for the pound against the dollar and the euro. The pace...
- Jun 24, 18:49: GBP/USD to 1.15, USD “smile pattern” – More Brexit reactions: After the UK voted out, there is room for the downside on EUR/USD. Some see 1.05 and some see parity. What...
- Jun 24, 18:22: AUD/USD to 0.70, EUR/USD to 1.00 – 1.05 and GBP/USD below 1.30 post Brexit – NAB: After the UK voted out, there is room for the downside on EUR/USD. Some see 1.05 and NAB sees even...
- Jun 24, 17:54: EUR/USD post Brexit – finding a balance before a steady slide – levels: Brexit is reality: the UK voted to leave the EU and markets are reacting. The biggest currency impact is seen...
- Jun 24, 16:58: Forget about Fed hikes – rate cut in September?: The UK decided to leave the EU in a move that shocked global markets. This has wide implications beyond the shores...
- Jun 24, 16:27: GBP/USD to 1.30 or 1.30? What’s next for EUR/USD? – targets: The UK voted out with the pound crashing and the euro following. What’s next? Here are opinins from two banks. Here is...
- Jun 24, 15:16: Brexit Fallout: US dollar likely to emerge the winner: A rising dollar once again! Would that be good or bad for the US economy? As Britain voted on June...
- Jun 24, 7:10: Brexit Breakdown – Live Market Open from 7:00 GMT: The UK is on its way out of the EU. Yes, voters shocked markets. It’s official. And markets have certainly...
- Jun 24, 5:36: UK leaves the EU – it is official – expect more crashes: ITV calls it. The BBC and Sky News follow. It is over. Here is what has happened and what might be seen...
- Jun 24, 4:54: USD/JPY crashes and bounces – did the BOJ intervene?: USD/JPY was under pressure together with the strengthening of the Brexit cause. And when it looks more and more real, USD/JPY...
- Jun 24, 4:45: EUR/USD hits low support – to break 1.10?: It seems clearer that Brexit wins the day in the UK. The pound is already at the lowest since 2009 and...
- Jun 24, 4:21: Brexit on the verge of victory – GBP/USD to 1.30?: According to various models and TV forecasts, the Leave camp is set to carry the day and win. Results keep...
- Jun 24, 3:08: Do these 3 things if you opt to jump on the Brexit train: Brexit odds are rising: GBP/USD is crashing, things are looking cruel as more votes for leave are gaining ground. The...
- Jun 24, 1:44: Brexit Day Live Blog – As it happened: After polls showed a lead for remain and early results for Leave, we start a live blog to cover the...
- Jun 24, 1:18: GBP/USD < 1.43 and bounces 200 pips on Sunderland Leave Win: Boom: bigger than expected win for Leave in Sunderland sends GBP/USD temporarily below 1.43 and now we have a bounce...
- Jun 24, 1:02: GBP/USD crashes to 1.48 on Newcastle report, Opinium poll: Only a marginal victory for Remain, contrary to expectations. These predictions stood on around two thirds for Remain in Newcastle...
- Jun 24, 0:56: AUD/USD rejected at resistance on Bremain poll lead: Counting is underway in the UK but whole we have very few real votes, the voting day polls have shown a...
- Jun 24, 0:23: 3 reasons why GBP/USD can fall from here: Cable topped 1.50 after a second voting day poll showed an even bigger victory and as The Sun conceded. This joined...
- Jun 23, 23:48: GBP/USD > 1.50 but retreats: Sun concession, new poll but Farage denial: Fresh moves and on fresh data, not real results. The initial polls showed a lead of 52% for Remain according to...
- Jun 23, 23:25: EU Referendum Preview: Positioning, Scenarios and Key Results Releases: Brexit or Bremain? This is a question the whole world is asking. If Brits vote to remain in the EU, we...
- Jun 23, 22:57: Voting Day polls show Bremain with 52% – GBP/USD touches 1.50: Sky News voting day poll by YouGov shows 52% Remain, 48% Leave. It is a large sample of 5000 voters. This...
- Jun 23, 21:58: GBP jumps ahead of poll closing – hedge fund exit polls?: Significant leaps in the pound and also in the euro just over one hour before polls close. It may or...
- Jun 23, 17:13: GBP is overvalued – Morgan Stanley: As we head into the last hours of the EU Referendum, volatility is extremely high. The team at Morgan Stanley sees...
- Jun 23, 16:41: Brexit and the Yellow Metal: By Naeem Aslam Chief Market Analyst ThinkForex The precious metal has very much priced in the decision that the Remain...
- Jun 23, 15:36: CAD, AUD and NZD jump and slide on UK polls: The former UK colonies are feeling some market love following fresh polls showing a break towards Bremain. The polls by Ipsos...
- Jun 23, 14:58: EUR/USD hits resistance, GBP jumps on new opinion polls: Weren’t opinion polls supposed to be banned when voting is open? Well, they are out anyway and they do have...
- Jun 23, 11:18: EU Referendum Video Guide: Britain decides to stay or to leave. We bring the latest news, potential and asymmetrical currency reactions and the timetable...
- Jun 23, 7:29: Remain Rally or Brexit Breakdown? Live Open from 7:00 GMT: The big day is here! As Brits go to the polls we have a special edition of the morning show...
- Jun 23, 7:28: UK Referendum: Markets Levels For The Day After – UBS: Here we are. It’s June 23rd and everything is set for the big drama: the EU In/Out Referendum. Here are the...
- Jun 23, 6:30: What Could Brexit Mean For The Euro? – Goldman Sachs: It’s always important to remember that a UK exit from the EU is also a blow to the euro. We...
- Jun 23, 1:18: Breaking for Bremain? Sterling shines: There is no rest for pollsters nor markets on the eve of the big vote. Two fresh polls show are showing...
- Jun 22, 22:04: AUD: What Would Brexit Bring? – NAB: Australia used to be a British colony, but that’s certainly not the reason that a potential Brexit could have on...
- Jun 22, 18:43: Think ‘Remain’, Sell The Yen – SocGen: While the pound is the center of attention ahead of the Brexit vote and the euro will follow the lead, also...
- Jun 22, 18:39: Was your trade’s fill price fair? Check your trade executions during Brexit with TradeProofer.com: It’s hard to exaggerate the importance of the EU Referendum for global markets. With low liquidity expected in any case...
- Jun 22, 17:43: Brexit polls update: neck to neck – GBP in range: The latest opinion polls by Opinium shows a marginal lead for Leave: 45% against 44%. This is a very small change...
- Jun 22, 15:40: GBP, JPY: Expected Trading Targets On A Leave / Remain Vote – BTMU: The Brexit / Bremain vote is upon us, with wide ranging implications. Here are the expected moves according to BTMU: Here is their...
- Jun 22, 12:23: 6 Reasons EUR/USD Won’t Collapse On Brexit – Deutsche Bank: We are one day away from the EU Referendum. It is hard to exaggerate in the importance of the event,...
- Jun 21, 15:45: EUR/USD, USD/JPY: Targets On Brexit – BofA Merrill: While most of the Brexit focus is on the pound, the euro gets carried away with Brexit talk and the...
- Jun 21, 15:21: Brexit Boiling Point – MM #106: We dedicate most of the show to British EU Referendum. It’s hard to exaggerate with the importance of the event....
- Jun 21, 14:49: How Should Traders Get Ready for Brexit?: With the referendum vote over the UK’s future membership of the EU being held on Thursday, traders are preparing for...
- Jun 21, 8:30: EUR/USD: Parity on Brexit; Still 1.10-1.15 on Bremain – NAB: The pound is not alone in its reactions to the British EU Referendum. After all, it’s the EU and the...
- Jun 21, 1:48: Don’t Take FX Positions Ahead Of The EU Referendum – Credit Agricole: Trading strategies on the EU Referendum are piling up. Here is a totally different approach: not to trade it at all....
- Jun 20, 19:22: British Referendum on EU membership: What is Ultimately at Stake?: British voters face a historic and critical choice about the future of the United Kingdom and the European Union on...
- Jun 20, 18:04: If Brexit, Buy CHF Vs EUR & GBP; If Bremain, Buy GBP Vs EUR – Goldman Sachs: The Breferendum is just days away. Here is how to trade it according to Goldman Sachs: Here is their view,...
- Jun 20, 7:32: Sterling comeback on Bremain gain: Was the tragic murder of UK MP Jo Cox behind the shift in the mood towards the EU Referendum? Or...
- Jun 20, 7:16: EUR/USD leaps on Bremain gain – levels to watch: We already explained why the pound had the potential to leap on a shift in weekend polls in favor of the Remain...
- Jun 20, 0:18: Week Ahead: Brexit, Bremain, Brace Yourself!: Is your broker Brexit ready? And what about you? Here is a preview from Credit Agricole: Here is their view,...
- Jun 19, 23:18: Brexit: Just How Bad Would It Be For Sterling? – CIBC: As we explained, Remain has regained momentum around the murder of Jo Cox and the pound is soaring. But if the...
- Jun 19, 23:00: Bremain Momentum – Will GBP jump?: The markets are closed but pollsters don’t rest. Figures released by various companies shower a tighter race. Some indicate some loss...
- Jun 18, 5:59: Brexit: BMG poll also shows a lean for Leave: Both phone and online polls conducted by BMG Research showed significant gains for the Leave camp. with a smaller lead for Remain in...
- Jun 17, 19:54: GBP/USD, EUR/USD: Levels To Watch On Remain/Leave Vote – SocGen: The pound and the euro did turn around and bounce back one week before the big vote and volatility is...
- Jun 17, 10:04: Major Currency Views Impact From Brexit – Morgan Stanley: The tragic murder of MP Jo Cox has triggered a bounce in the value of the pound amid a strengthening of...
- Jun 17, 8:16: GBP/USD: Range and projected BOE action: While the pound did make a huge rebound in the aftermath of the tragic killing of MP Jo Cox, Brexit is...
- Jun 16, 19:52: GBP/USD soars 200 pips on rumors of a suspension of the referendum: The markets are focused on the Brexit / Bremain debate, one week before the planned EU Referendum. Today, the situation became...
- Jun 16, 15:58: GBP/USD suffers 3 Brexit Blows – hovers over low support: The British pound continues suffering and finally broke down below the 1.41 handle. It now faces strong support, and not at the...
- Jun 16, 15:46: Projected Levels For Major FX Pairs in 3M Under Bremain/Brexit Scenarios: The impact of the EU Referendum goes well beyond the shores of the UK but impacts many other currencies. Here...
- Jun 15, 3:40: Can GBP/USD break 1.40? Pressure mounts: After the ICM polls hit the pound hard we had the TNS poll that came out with the same tendency:...
- Jun 14, 19:47: GBP/JPY comfortable under 150 after another Brexit poll: Another day and another opinion poll hits the beaten pound: TNS shows growing support for a Brexit: 47% to 40% for...
- Jun 14, 0:34: GBP does NOT fully reflect Brexit polls – more falls to come?: This is becoming a winning streak for the Leave campaign and a losing streak for Remain. Polls are showing that undecided are...
- Jun 13, 16:22: Oil, Brexit and the Big Fed Preview – MM #105: We don’t miss any of the hot topics: oil which is on fire, the fierce Brexit debate and the upcoming...
- Jun 13, 16:12: GBP: Weaker By Christmas, In Or Out: How To Trade It? – SocGen: The pound certainly suffered amid growing fears of Brexit and a worsening global situation. In or out, the team at...
- Jun 13, 6:11: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF: Levels For ‘Brexit’ Or ‘Bremain’ – Danske: After the pound suffered yet another blow on Brexit fears, here is an updated map of risks for the main protagonists on...
- Jun 12, 17:20: Orlando Attack Can Trigger “Risk Off” at market open – sell GBP/JPY?: At least 50 people were killed in an LGBT nightclub in Orlando called Pulse. This is a result of an...
- May 29, 14:21: GBP: Brexit Risk Waning: Where To Target? – CIBC: Recent opinion polls are looking better for the Bremain campaigners against the Brexiteers. What does that mean for the pound? Can...
- May 25, 12:55: Brexit or Bremain? 3 things to look out for [Video]: Less than a month is left towards the EU Referendum in the UK and the impact on currencies is growing...
- May 24, 13:36: Spread Betting and the Brexit Vote: What Traders Need to Know: In the run-up to the June 23 Brexit referendum, newspaper polls, telephone polls, and Internet polls are playing second fiddle...
- May 24, 10:38: Buying USD and JPY much better choices than EUR in case of a Brexit: In an interview with FXStreet I discussed the meaning of the Fed minutes, the impact on stock markets, what currencies to buy...
- Apr 18, 15:19: GBP/JPY a Brexit play, Outlook for Oil, FTSE, EURUSD and Gold: EUR/USD and Gold upside ahead, FTSE higher before lower, Oil a difficult trade, says Brenda Kelly, Head Analyst at London...
- Mar 31, 7:03: To Hedge For Brexit, Sell EUR/USD Not GBP/USD – BofA Merrill: Following the Brussels bombing, the pound weakened alongside the euro. This was due to the growing fear of a “Brexit”. Nevertheless, a...
- Mar 28, 0:46: Pound Sterling at risk of a Brexit: Keeping up with his poll promise to hold a referendum whether to stay ‘In’ or ‘Out’ of the EU, British...
- Mar 22, 7:59: GBP: Trading Brexit: The Long & Short Of It – CIBC: Should I stay or should I go? This is the question facing Brits regarding the European Union membership. And what...
- Mar 3, 11:47: The Brexit and Spread Betting: Dynamic Market Interaction: The United Kingdom will be holding a referendum on June 23 to determine whether a Brexit will become a reality...
- Feb 26, 7:17: What will sway the ‘don’t know’ Brexit voters?: Mic Mills, Head of Client Services for Capital Index, joined Zak Mir, Technical Analyst for Zak’s Traders Cafe, on the...
- Feb 24, 16:52: GBP/USD back to 1972, The whole of Europe will suffer from a Brexit: The bottom of the range in Cable hsa held 4 times over the past 40 years, and only broken once...
