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Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics, suggests that it seems unlikely that the deal that was signed off by European leaders this weekend will be approved by the UK’s parliament.

Key Quotes

“A vote seems likely at some point in the week beginning December 10th. If the government loses, it would probably set the stage for several weeks of further negotiation, with officials and ministers scurrying between London and Brussels trying to revive the deal.”

“A key point that is often overlooked is that there are many different forms of “no deal”. At one end of the spectrum, is an “orderly” or “managed” no deal, in which the UK leaves the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement, but does have several side agreements in place that keep traffic flowing at ports and airports and limit the risks of financial market dislocation. At the other end of the spectrum, is a “disorderly” no deal in which no such agreements are struck.”