Brexit likely to be delayed? – Danske Bank

Vladimir Miklashevsky, senior economist at Danske Bank, notes that in the latest twist of UK politics, PM Theresa May has postponed the next so-called meaningful vote, which should have taken place tomorrow, by another two weeks to 12 March, as she still does not have a new deal with the EU.

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“We still have the indicative vote on Wednesday, where the most important thing is whether the House of Commons will force May to ask for an extension of Article 50 or not. As it is not the last chance for the MPs to do this, it will likely be a close call.”

“The problem for Theresa May is that the EU has said it will not give any concessions before May shows a stable majority. The Guardian indicated that the EU would prefer a long extension of Article 50. We have argued for some time this may be the best way forward without either side losing face, as more details on the future relationship would make the backstop redundant.”

“On Sunday 24 February, The Telegraph reported that Theresa May is considering a plan under which Brexit could be delayed for up to two months. The UK government has prepared a series of options, which were disseminated over the weekend, in order to avoid resignations by ministers determined to support a backbench bid to take a no-deal Brexit off the table.”

“The options contain making a formal request to Brussels to delay Brexit if May cannot agree on a deal by 12 March. On the other hand, the EU is considering telling her that if she cannot get her Brexit deal through parliament and wants to delay the departure date, the country will have to stay in the bloc until 2021, Bloomberg reported.”