As June 23rd draws near and the local elections are behind us, the number of polls regarding the EU referendum intensifies. And the most recent ones seem more favorable to the Remain camp, contrary to the previous ones which showed a very tight race.
While the picture remains mixed, the pound does take advantage of these reports, also taking advantage of the lack of direction currently characterizing the dollar and also the euro and the yen.
Recent Brexit Polls
A poll by ORB shows the Remain campaign well ahead with 55% against 40% for the Leave camp. This is an increase of 4% in the gap in comparison to the firm’s previous poll. The pollsters do mention that the public expects a Remain vote, and that this could trigger complacency for the pro-EU camp that could serve as an opportunity for the Leave campaign.
ICM shows a mixed picture: a divide between the phone and online polls. The phone poll shows an advantage of 8% for the Remain camp, 47% / 39% while the online polls favors the Leave campaign, 47% / 43%. The pollsters working with The Guardian, decided to post both figures and leave the judgement for the readers.
While the data seems contradictory, the lead in the phone poll is double the one in the online one, and this favors the Remain campaign. The phone poll leans towards Labour while the online poll leans towards UKIP.
GBP likes the EUR
36 days to go, the pound currently finds comfort with rises against the dollar, euro and yen.
Will this last? The next move depends on the next poll but also on the inflation numbers due later today, followed by jobs and retail sales along the week.
Here is the GBP/USD chart, showing the nice rise to a higher range: 1.4440 to 1.4510, up from the previous range. EUR/GBP is also some 40 pips lower and GBP/JPY is around 100 pips higher.Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs