Brexit to be delayed, odds of no-deal at 35% – Reuters poll

A Reuters poll of economists showed on Tuesday that Brexit will be extended again even if the Parliament attempts to block o no-deal Brexit outcome.

Key Findings:

“All but three of the 35 respondents to an extra question said the scheduled departure date – already delayed – would be extended again, most likely to January.

There is a 35% chance of no deal being agreed, a so-called disorderly Brexit, according to the median forecast in a Sept. 5-9 Reuters poll, unchanged from an August poll which was the highest since Reuters began asking the question two years ago.

Forecasts ranged from 10% to 60%.

Still, a strong majority of economists still say the two sides will eventually settle on a free trade deal, as they have said since late 2016 when Reuters first started asking about the most likely outcome.

In second place, again, was the more extreme option of leaving without a deal and trading under World Trade Organization rules.

The third most likely outcome was Britain remaining a member of the European Economic Area, paying into the EU budget to maintain access to the Single Market yet having no say over policy. Fourth place once again went to cancelling Brexit.

The probability of a recession within a year held steady at 35%. The likelihood of one in the next two years fell to 35% from 40%.

None of the 54 economists polled thought the Monetary Policy Committee would alter borrowing costs when they announce their latest decision on Sept. 19.”