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“PM Boris Johnson has signalled willingness to renegotiate the current Brexit deal, but his price – removing the Irish backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement – is likely too high for EU officials to accept,” argue  Standard Chartered analysts and say that weeks leading up to the Article 50 deadline are likely to be some of the most chaotic seen yet.

Key quotes

” It is early days, but the current administration appears more unified and committed to Brexit, which will make it more difficult for Parliament to stop a no-deal exit. Members of parliament (MPs) inclined to prevent ‘no-deal’ will need to use parliamentary procedures creatively and be wary of timing issues and possible blocking responses from the government.”

“An extreme outcome – including a new election and/or a no-deal Brexit or even no Brexit – is becoming more likely. As a result, we expect the weeks leading up to 31 October to be some of the most chaotic seen yet. We explore the options available to both sides in more detail below.”