Canada: CPI inflation is projected to firm to 2.4% in January – TD Securities

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Previewing next week’s macroeconomic data releases from Canada, “CPI inflation is projected to firm to 2.4% in January on a combination of a 0.3% m/m increase and base-effects from energy that will contribute another 0.1pp to the headline,” TD Securities analysts said.

Key quotes

“Carbon taxes in Alberta will provide a slight tailwind though we expect a drag from a pullback in airfares. Core inflation measures should edge lower, closing in on 2.0% from the current 2.06% y/y.”

“We expect a 0.5% m/m gain in December retail sales. Motor vehicles should exert a slight drag, leaving ex-auto sales up 0.7%, helped by strong holiday shopping. Real retail sales should see more modest gains although any positive contribution to monthly GDP will be welcome after a muted performance through 2019.”

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