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According to analysts at TD Securities, Canada’s industry-level GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.2% m/m in May after a robust performance over the last two months.

Key Quotes

“Goods-producing industries will provide the main source of strength on a rebound in manufacturing output and sustained strength in construction activity, while the energy sector should make a muted contribution after leading industry-level growth for March and April.”

“On the other end of the spectrum, lower retail and wholesale volumes point to a material drag on services while the moderation in existing home sales will leave one less driver for growth. Industry-level GDP growth of 0.2% should be sufficient to keep Q2 GDP tracking near 3%, above estimates from the July MPR (2.3%). However, this alone is not enough to outweigh elevated global uncertainty, leaving the BoC in wait-and-see mode.”